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Way out for the major declining of Hindu population in India

Posted by hinduexistence on May 20, 2011

(Indian) Hindu population set to fall below 80% in Census 2011

Manika Premsingh and R Jagannathan || Courtesy : firstpost 

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Hindus have among the lowest overall sex ratios and child sex ratios in the country as per Census 2001. Amit Dave/Reuters

Census 2011 is likely to throw up a psychologically important figure on India’s religious demographics. For the first time in over a century, the proportion of the Hindu population in the country will probably fall below the 80 percent mark — in keeping with the long-term trend of a significant divergence between Hindu and Muslim growth rates.

Demographers like Ashish Bose and SC Gulati have varying viewpoints on the subject. While Bose believes that “it is quite likely that the proportion will be below 80% in 2011”, Gulati says that “A secular trend cannot be predicted for religions based on past data”. The latter view is also backed by another Economic & Political Weekly (EPW) research paper “Hindu-Muslim Fertility Differentials”, which says: “It is true that a Hindu-Muslim differential in fertility persists in India’s demographic reality, but it is no more than one child. It is also not too large to swamp India’s Hindu majority in the foreseeable future. Nor is the gap likely to persist for a very long time as we find that the fertility level among Muslims declines with increasing level of education and standards of living. The faster increase in family planning among Muslims supports this conjecture”.

In a country where Hinduism is the majority religion, it is a unique trend that the proportion of Hindus has shown a secular decline since 1961, matched by a corresponding increase in the proportion of Muslims. While religion is a contentious issue to analyse at any point in time, it is equally imperative to analyse trends deeply enough to understand its socio-economic ramifications. 

Firstpost is raising this issue not to pander to any scare-mongering among Hindus, but because it needs to be understood in the right context. As we await the Census 2011 results on religious demographics, we undertook an analysis of this trend and what it means for the future. Our detailed analysis indicates that while the population of Muslims is indeed growing faster than Hindus, this is only partly due to higher birth rates among them; Hindus, on the other had, also carry a responsibility for the trend in the form of lower longevity, as well as widespread prevalence of gender discrimination and higher mortality among children.

Explaining the trend
The proportion of Hindus has in the population shrunk from 83.4 percent in 1961 to 80.5 percent according to the 2001 census. This trend matches with an almost equivalent proportional rise among the Muslims — from 10.7 percent to 13.4 percent from 1961 to 2001 (and for this reason we also restrict our study to a comparative analysis between these two religions). A declining proportion of Hindus means either that the growth of Hindus is declining or that of other communities is rising. Or, as in this case, a combination of both. Decadal growth in the Hindu population has fallen to 19.3% compared with 23.8% in 1961, as per our estimates based on data from the National Minorities Commission and the Census of India 2001. In comparison, the growth in the Muslim population accelerated from 30.6% in 1961 to 34.6% in 2001. (Figures for religious demography in 2011 are yet to be made available).

For a country that has been battling the population problem for decades, while a decline in the proportion of Hindus has been flagged as a source of concern by religious organisations, to others it actually indicates social progression. It is seen as socially progressive since population growth depends on factors like fertility rates and birth rates.  These, in turn, are influenced by social factors like literacy, in general, and female literacy, in particular, awareness about contraception methods, average age of marriage and the proportion of working women. Lower fertility and birth rates then are pointers to the development of societies as such.

The social factors
On some metrics, Hindus do perform better. According to estimates published in an EPW research paper on “District level fertility estimates for Hindus and Muslims”  in 2005, Crude Birth Rates (CBR, as defined by number of births per 1,000 persons) for Muslims are a much higher at 30.8 as compared with the Hindu number of 24.9 and the all-India average of 25.9. This is also mirrored in a higher Muslim Total Fertility Rate (TFR, as defined by the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her child-bearing years) of 4.1 as compared with 3.1 for Hindus and 3.2 for all India.

It is hard to overlook the fact that trends in birth rates and fertility rates are seen as commensurate with the expected trends for literacy, use of contraception and workforce participation, despite the differences in methodology of estimation and sources.

Hindu women have slightly higher literacy rates than Muslim women at 53.2 percent and 50.1 percent, respectively as per Census 2001, which has been considered as compared with Census 2011 to keep time periods comparable. Moreover, the last National Family Health Survey (NFHS) in 2005-06 found that while 57.8 percent of Hindus were using contraception, the figure was  much lower at 45.7 percent among the Muslims — suggesting, at least in part, a greater awareness about use of family planning among the Hindus.  We also observe a higher proportion for working women among the Hindus — at 27.5 percent, this is higher than even the all-India average of 25.6 percent, with the Jains, Muslims and Sikhs accounting for a lower than average proportion.
However, this is only half the story told.

The other side
True, the Hindu population growth has declined because of some social progression. However, Hindus also show dismal performance when it comes to other crucial social attributes, namely, focus on healthcare and gender bias.  According to a study by the International Institute for Population Sciences, “Inequality in Human Development by Social and Economic Groups in India”, the life expectancy at birth for Hindus in 2005-06 was 65 years while it was higher at 68 years among Muslims. There is, of course, an element of economic prosperity here as well, with the gap between life expectancy for “poor” Hindus and Muslims being wider than that for the “non-poor” in the two communities.  The overall point, however, remains, that at birth a Muslim has a chance of living longer than a Hindu.

This is clearly related to the fact that in childhood itself a higher proportion of Hindus die. Hindus have an infant mortality rate of 58.5, while the same rate among the Muslims is at 52.4, according to the National Family Health Survey (2005-06), where the infant mortality rate is defined as the probability of dying before the first birthday. Similarly, under-5 mortality is at a high of 76 compared with 70 for Muslims. This fact is also echoed in a research paper by the University of Bristol on “Religion and Childhood Death in India”, which says “Muslim children in India face substantially lower mortality risks than Hindu children. This is surprising because one would have expected just the opposite: Muslims have, on average, lower socio-economic status, higher fertility, shorter birth-spacing, and are a minority group in India that may be expected to live in areas that have relatively poor public provision.”

While it remains to be conclusively proved whether Muslims as such provide better healthcare, it has been pointed out that gender bias is one explanation for this trend. According to a 2004 research paper on “Religion and Fertility in India: The role of son preference and daughter aversion” by researchers at University of Ulster and University of Cambridge, “Muslim fertility in India may be higher than Hindu fertility, but we argue that an important, albeit neglected, issue is not that Muslims have more children than Hindus, but that they treat them better on account of significantly lower levels of daughter aversion.”

As per their estimates, male infant mortality rates (where infant mortality rate is defined as the number of infant deaths as a proportion of live births) among Hindus and Muslims are at 4.5 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively, but the difference in female infant mortality rates is much higher, with the rate among Hindus at 6.3 percent and that among Muslims at 4.6 percent, respectively. The numbers are further corroborated by the fact that Hindus have among the lowest overall sex ratios and child sex ratios in the country as per the Census 2001. The overall sex ratio is higher only than the Sikhs at 931, compared with the Muslims’ sex ratio at 936. The child-sex ratio for Hindus is even worse than Muslims at 925 as compared with 950 for Muslims.  In Census 2011, the overall sex ratio has risen from 933 to 940, but the child-sex ratio has fallen from 927 to 914. The religion-wise breakup will be available only later.

Looking Ahead
So what do these trends mean for the future? That’s tough to say. While for now it might be difficult to know for sure how religious demographics will develop over the coming decades, what is clear is that it looks to be less about one religion’s growth versus the other, and more a reflection of serious demographic issues to be addressed by both.

Proportion of various religions in population : Sheet-1

All 100 100 100 100 100
Hindus 83.4 82.7 82.6 82.0 80.5
Muslims 10.7 11.2 11.4 12.1 13.4
Christians 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3
Sikhs 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9
Buddhists 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8
Others 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6
ReligionNot stated 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Source: National Commission on Minorities

Demographics by Religion : Table 2

All religious communities Sex Ratio Sex Ratio 0-6 yrs. Proportion of Population in 0-6 yrs. Literacy Rate Female Literacy Rate
Hindus

931

925

15.6

65.1

53.2

Muslims

936

950

18.7

59.1

50.1

Christians

1009

964

13.5

80.3

76.2

Sikhs

893

786

12.8

69.4

63.1

Buddhists

953

942

14.4

72.7

61.7

Jains

940

870

10.6

94.1

90.6

Other Religions

992

976

18.0

47.0

33.2

Source: National Commission on Minorities

Courtesy : http://www.firstpost.com/ 

Hindu Existence Solutions : 

  • Marriage must be within age 25 for female and 30 for male Hindus.
  • At least THREE babies for every able rural couple and TWO babies for able  urban couple.
  • One baby more considering the capable situation in the name of Dharma.
  • Strict negation and punishments for  female foeticides. 
  • Stress upon small business, self entrepreneurship, small village industries, group farming-cultivation for the maintenance of families, not relying upon services in public or private sectors. 
  • Inter caste marriage under broad Hindu basis avoiding blood relations.
  • Accept and Marriage  with the girls of other religions to mitigate the ill effect of Love Jihad.
  • Marriage without dowry and other superstitious prejudices. 
  • Marriage to maintain divine life and the gaining the full strength of the Hindu society. 

8 Responses to “Way out for the major declining of Hindu population in India”

  1. 1) One hindu currupt leader, beurocrat is harming hindus, and this country more than all the muslim terrorist togethor.

    why forget they are the real danger to this hindu nation and its existence.

    and why they are so extremely currupt because they do not know the realilty of their own relegion.

    if they know / understand the basic scripture like sree gita , they will not be probably such a big danger to hindus of hindustan.

    2) Every hindu home in India and abroad is producing an army of hindus every day. who are ignorant , and foolish hindus, who do not know what a hindu is, they do not have any pride as hindus, every day.

    what even if they become even 99 %.

    we are just ignoring the need to educate the hindus about their own relegion.

    3) I know a lot of elite hindus, money peopple, staunce hindus, who do not hesitate to write christian in the admission form of their children, for admission in a famous missionary school , if they are asked for it.

    and when i knew it from them, and said, is this right, then they said with pride and cleverly smile, see how i fooled the christians.

    any comments ?

    4) हिंदुओं को खतरा मुसलमानों से या अपने अंदर की मूर्खता से !

    यहाँ लिखा लेख हिंदुओं को मुसलमानों की बढ़ती आबादी से खतरे के बारे में है.

    मगर मेरा यहाँ कहना है कि मुसलमानों में कितने आतंकवादी होंगें.

    वे कितना नुक्सान कर पाएंगे .

    मगर, ये जो नेता और I A S की फ़ौज हिंदुओं व देश का नुक्सान कर रही है , वह तो मुसलमानों के नुक्सान के आगे नगण्य है.

    आप क्या कहते हैं.

    दूसरा सबसे बार नुक्सान उस जनता से है जो नाम से , पैदाइश से , तो हिंदू है , पर न तो वो हिंदू हैं . न मुसलमान , वे केवल हिंदुइ़त के नाम पर कलंक हैं.

    न तो वो हिंदू के हैं , न देश के.

    वे अपनी खुद की हवस के लिए , हिंदुओं को , अपने देश को , अपने जमीर को ( जो है ही नहीं ) बेचे हुए हैं.

    ये कलमाड़ी , राजा , करूणानिधि , उसी प्रकार के जैचंद व हिंदू हैं.

    इसका इलाज यह है कि यदि कुछ बुद्धिजीवी हिंदू संत या नेता बचे हों तो वे हिंदुओं को वास्तविक हिंदू बनाने का अभियान युद्ध स्तर पर छेरें .

    और इन हिंदुओं से मुसलमानों को डरने की जरूरत न होगी. क्योंकि उनका विश्वास अपने असली धर्म , में , भगवान में, श्री गीता जी में होगा .

    जो कहती है कि अन्याय, अत्याचार नहीं सहेंगे , मगर हर जीव में भगवान को देखेंगे. (गीता अध्याय ५ श्लोक १८ :

    विद्याविनयसंपन्ने ब्राह्मणे गवि हस्तिनि।
    शुनि चैव श्वपाके च पण्डिताः समदर्शिनः॥५- १८॥

    ज्ञानमंद व्यक्ति एक विद्या विनय संपन्न ब्राह्मण को, गाय को, हाथी को, कुत्ते को
    और एक नीच व्यक्ति को, इन सभी को समान दृष्टि से देखता है।

    आप क्या कहते हैं, मैं कितना गलत हूं !

    5) in my personal view :

    the danger to hindus is not from the rising number of muslims or any other community, but from the ignorant hindus, who are foolish, self-centred view towards their own relegion.

    even if the hindus become 99 % overnight, the muslims will rule them eventually.

    history is the witness that , when muslims ruled india they were less then 1%.

    when british ruled india they were even less than 0.1% of the population.

    i am a vigilant ,widely travelled internationally, educated, upper middle class, businessman, urban hindu, of age 57 and till this age i never had any urge or interest in knowing what is written in my scriptures, and i was a big-mouth for the nation and hinduism.

    now also knows a lot of mature hindu big mouths, around me, leaders, relegious leaders, beaurocrats, big-big businessmen who has never gone through any of hindu scriptrue, they do not know even one shloka from ramayan or sri gita jee. some of them has seen a part of ramayana serial or mahabharat. that is it.

    so blame should not be on quantity but on quality also.

    would like to be corrected from the hindu intellect.

    thanks and regards
    ashok gupta, delhi, india
    ashok.gupta4@gmail.com

  2. Bharat bhabna said

    Opposition party & other hindu organizations must pursue to the govt for implementation of an uniform law against the polygamy immediately to save the country from being population explosion & further degradation.For this a mass signature may be collected from the countrymen whether they deny this law or not.this trick may work.

  3. झूटे और बेकार बेईमान राजा, और कलमाड़ी जैसे हिंदुओं की फ़ौज से अच्छा है एक दो हिंदू विकेकानंद और प्रभुपाद की तरह हों.

  4. ashish kumar said

    please hindus get united, above caste differences, and fight for our existance, do something to prevent mugal rule again

  5. Akhilesh said

    I think that in 2011 religion census hindu population will grow not below to 80 percent congress secular leader hindu jaichand are responsible for discrimnation of hindus be united.

  6. Ashwini said

    Christians have a single manager in Vatican city and Muslims have single manager at Mecca,but Hindus have four Shankaracharyas and lacs of mathas,who make disputes everyday a new. No veda prevents us to make inter-caste,inter-religion merriages,but none of these ponga panda says openly and even support it. Preaches include caste based KATHAS,but nobody tells about VEDAS. Why? Vedas are like Supreme court for religious disputes. Back to Vedas for a survival of Hindus and Hindu Rashtra.

  7. singh said

    What was the point of creating a seperate muslim state (pakistan) when more muslims were allowed to stay in india…… Hindus had the best opportunity ever to rid all muslims out of india and they failed….

    And now alreadly in many states in india muslims are becoming a majority and will start trouble and want independent states within india its happening in kasmir

    Soon hindu in about 100 years will be a minority within india

    • uwais said

      why do u blame muslims or the leaders politicians when ur own women cannot breed enough child .In many cases hindu women hv 1 or not more than 2 children .It is not b’cos they r educated or concerned abt population growth of india. The real reason is they r not capable of conceiving due 2 the age factor at wht they get married. If the same hindu girl marries a muslim man she is forced 2 gv birth 2 at least 3 childrens.And how abt the inter-religious marriages.On an avg.year 2010 has registered approx 10,000 inter-religious marriages in india .Among tht 98% of cases hindu girls where the one who married either muslims or christains.Only 0.25 % r muslim girls tht means 1 muslim girl among 400 girls. So it would be better to understand the real situation.Even much educated catholic girls don’t marry so often outside their own religion as compared 2 hindu girls.

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