Is BJP-NDA far from its 400+ claim?

An Intelligence Initiative forecasts not more than 250 seats for BJP in Lok Sabha Poll amidst Hindutva repercussion.  

Common people who are concerned with the election result and  future of the country obviously understand with their general intelligence that BJP will not get 370+ or NDA as 400+. But, they also dislike seer political propagation of any exaggeration or underestimation conspiracy. 

~ Upananda Brahmachari. 

On the day of Hanuman Jayanti (April 23, 2024), I got some message about a political prediction from five responsible persons out of which one was a former Director of CBI. The prediction was meant for BJP’s win in the Lok Sabha seats in this General Election 2024. As I was very much busy with Hanumat worship in my Haridwar ashram on that auspicious day, it was not possible to focus on that matter anyway, violating my puja rituals.

This time Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) has set its goal as ‘400 paar‘ (beyond 400) clarifying 370+ seats for BJP itself and rest of seats (30+) in the bag of its NDA (National Democratic Alliance) partners. Though BJP claims it an easy game for win, but experts say that is not a cake walk.

To ensure ‘Modi ki Guarantee’,  BJP has set sights on the ruling coalition exceeding 400 out of 543 seats in the lower house of parliament after votes are counted on June 4.

When the BJP, the paid media, and its IT cell are trying to establish the claim of ‘beyond 400’ in a very prodigal way, some intelligence inputs say something different which has started a shivering within BJP as sources say.

Economist Surjit Bhalla, in an interview with NDTV, said the BJP is likely to perform better this time than what it achieved in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. He predicted 5 to 7% rise in BJP seats won compared to the 2019 results.

“Based on statistical possibility, they should get 330 to 350 seats on their own. This is just the BJP, not including its alliance partners,” Bhalla told NDTV news channel. But, that will not touch the 400+ mark with all efforts of BJP and NDA.

Now, many analysts and election strategists from BJP internally  say the task isn’t entirely impossible, but will likely be difficult.

“The NDA won 352 seats last time and to cross 400 they need 48 seats more,” said Pradeep Gupta, chairman of polling company Axis My India. “Much depends how BJP and NDA performs in states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh in southern India”, Gupta was quoted by the Economic Times.

Interesting enough, when the Hindutva is the driving force for BJP’s win in earlier phases, now Modi has lost his credential of Hindutva as criticised by many Hindutva proponents like Revered Shankaracharyas, Dr Subramanian Swamy, M Nageshwara Rao, Madhu Kishwar, Sandeep Deo and many others.

These Hindutva stalwarts who earlier supported  Modi and BJP are now made antagonist of PM Modi for his anti-Hindutva activities related to issues like  Declaring Ram Setu as National Monument, Ban on Cow Slaughter, Prohibition on Conversion,  Free Hindu Temples from Govt Control, Rehabilitation of  Pandits in Kashmir valley, Revoking Muslim Personal law and Waqf Act, Repealing  the Place of Worship(Special Provisions) Act-1991 and many others.

Many of these Hindutva stalwarts, once many of them were in BJP’s close circle, now oppose Modi’s autocracy in the party and Hindutva domain, declaring Modi as a ‘false Hindutva poster boy’.  Many of them opine that Supreme Court paved the way to build the Ram Temple in Ayodhya and Modi sucked all credits to him in a ‘cunning and deceitful way’.

Such division of Hindutva family and its leadership has now severely affected the Hindu vote bank of BJP.

Now that has been reckoned by BJP itself as party sources say.

Now, an alarming Internal survey by reliable intelligence inputs has come to fore that BJP can be dwindled in its majority mark of 272.

The India Intelligence Initiative conducted a survey (held before 19.04.2024) with the help of some ‘official inputs’ which predicts that BJP will get 227 seats as much in this Lok Sabha election  with an overall  ± 10% variation. This prediction indicated a maximum 250 seats anyway for BJP. This survey is alarming if it is not an I.N.D.I.A deep fake.

This prediction is not good for BJP showing 10 seats in Bihar out of 40; 50 out of 80 in Uttar Pradesh, 12 out of 28 in Karnataka;  10 out of 48 in Maharashtra. Such results in BJP ruled or influenced states are quite unimaginable. WB shows a favourable 20 seats for BJP out of 42 and in Madhya Pradesh BJP will get 26  out of 29 Lok Sabha seats.

Sources say that this Intelligence Initiative comprises many former intelligence personalities as believed.

Now, the common people who are concerned with the election result and  future of the country obviously understand with their general intelligence that BJP will not get 370+ or NDA as 400+. But, they also dislike seer political propagation of any exaggeration or underestimation out of any political conspiracy.

Political truthfulness is now a rare thing and the poll result on June 4th will reveal the truth however.

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Writer can be contacted at upananda.br@gmail.com