What media houses think about Hindutva, Modi and Welfare!

The hat-trick of BJP in Dec 2023 will lead the saffron party another hat-trick in 2024 in a balance of Hindutva and Development through various welfare schemes. 

BJP’s big win in three states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh and the impressive results in Telangana indicate the way of victory of BJP in the way of Hindutva and Developmental drive through various welfare schemes. Here is two opinions and one panel discussion what thinks the media about PM Modi’s claim another hat-trick once again in 2024. It assumes that The hat-trick of BJP in Dec 2023 will lead the saffron party another hat-trick in 2024 in a balance of Hindutva and Development. 

Modi plus Hindutva proves too tough for Congress.

K A Johny in Mathrubhumi.

Congress is on a slippery wicket. The grand old party’s return in Telangana is nothing but spectacular. But that glory gets deeply blurred before the party’s pathetic performance in the Hindi heartland. Congress had stunned the saffron party 5 years back with its lead in all the three states . But that seems a distant past now when BJP gains decisively in the Hindi heartland which once again endorses Narendra Modi as the Hindu Hriday Samrat. Both Rajasthan and MP are equally significant in Indian politics as UP. RSS and BJP consider these two states very important in their journey towards a Hindu India. Any setback in these states will reflect heavily on the RSS headquarters at Nagpur. The saffron victory in this region is therefore a strong indicator to waht is there in store for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The 5 states including Mizoram have altogether 83 Lok Sabha seats. The pattern in the parliament election has been in favour of BJP in recent times. These states went with the saffron party irrespective of the assembly election results. Now, BJP could feel doubly sure of that trend when the party gets people’s mandate at the state level too.

It also shows that BJP learns its lessons fast . The victory of Congress in Karnataka was an eye opener for BJP. It realised the political message that came out of the  southern state and responded to the scenario much more realistically than its major opponent. Will Congress realise its lessons the same way now? Even if it wakes up to reality now, it seems doubtful if the party will be able to reap the benefits since the Lok Sabha elections are hardly a a few months away.

Congress has been going through some kind of a civil war in Rajasthan. Ashok Gehlot’s domination within Congress in the desert state was almost complete with the marginalisation of Sachin Pilot. Gehlot was considered one of the most loyal regional leaders of the Nehru Family. But that image suffered a major jolt when he defied the high command’s order to be the choice for the party’s top post. Gehlot refused to move from Rajasthan to Delhi. That was a revolt against the party high command. Still , he could continue as the CM in the state. That showed the Nehru family in poor light.

It exposed the fact that the family no longer enjoyed the unquestionable commanding power in the grand old party. If Rahul’s strategy was implemented, Sachin would have replaced Gehlot in the state. That would have unravelled a totally different scenario which might have paid great dividends for Congress. Now, the stunning victory of BJP means the end of the road for Gehlot. He will be viewed as the leader who stabbed the high command from behind. Every defeat demands a sacrifice. It will be Gehlot’s turn this time in Rajasthan.

Congress calculated that Kamal Nath had the capabilities to bring back the party to power in MP. Kamal Nath in turn banked on an alternate Hindutva to achieve this goal. He even went to the extent not to have the political rally by the INDIA front in Bhopal for the fear of walking along with DMK which was accused of taking on the ‘ Sanatan Dharma’. But MP has made it crystal clear that the soft hindutva stands no chance before the original hindutva of the sangh parivar.The combination of saffronisation and welfare schemes has proved too tough a nut to crack.

One major take away from these results is that the bargaining power of Congress has been weakened drastically. The victory in Karnataka had given an extra mileage in terms of political power for Congress. That stands diminished right now. The fact that Congress has lost both Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh will embolden the other opposition parties like TMC, JDU and NCP to demand more sacrifices from the party. It is no longer Modi vs Rahul. It is going to be Modi vs ‘INDIA’. The victory in Telangana offers a consolation prize to Congress. The people of Telangana have rejected the corrupt family rule of KCR. But, at the end , that can not compensate for Congress’ loss in the Hindi heartland.

CPM will find the results encouraging in its own peculiar way. If Congress had swept the three states , the minorities in Kerala would have thrown their lot completely with the party. Now, they may have to rethink. And that will bring in some unexpected gains to CPM which has only a meagre presence in Parliament right now. Muslim League also stands to benefit from the election results. The bargaining power of the League will definitely go up in the state. Congress will have to face a much more aggressive League in the coming days. The Congress may also see a greater demand for a change in the state leadership. The ‘ A’ group within the party will insist that Shashi Tharoor should lead the congress in the state. If Muslim League too joins hands then the high command may find it too difficult to refuse this demand.

(This was first published on Dec 3, 2023)

Welfarism plus Hindutva doing the job for BJP in the heartland.

The Rajasthan results are on expected lines, but the turnaround scripted in MP and Chhattisgarh are spectacular, both in terms of scale and vote differences.

Sumit Pande in Deccan Herald

The BJP’s clean sweep in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh consolidates the ruling party’s pole position ahead of the Lok Sabha polls next year while exposing Congress’ limitations in taking on the Narendra Modi-led BJP in a one-on-one contest in the heartland states.

The Rajasthan results are on expected lines, but the turnaround scripted in MP and Chhattisgarh are spectacular, both in terms of scale and vote differences.

If one were to analyse the poll outcome in totality, a common thread runs through the three states comprising a vast swathe of the Hindi-speaking belt stretching from Bastar to Barmer — it has fallen into a saffron spell.

Both the BJP and Congress competed with their versions of welfarism, trying to outdo one another by offering freebies. But Congress’ inability  to erect a credible ideological bulwark remains a gaping hole in its strategy, which has to compete against the BJP’s double-engine-government bait, served with a heady mix of labarthi schemes and a dash of Hindutva.

From Kawardha in Chhattisgarh, which witnessed communal riots this year, to the Kanhaiya Lal case in Rajasthan’s Udaipur, the undertones of the BJP’s campaign remained firmly latched to its Hindutva agenda. Its impact on the narrative is clear on the election map that has been painted saffron by the BJP’s wave in central Chhattisgarh and south Rajasthan.

But wherever needed, the BJP was nimble enough to match the Congress’ aggressive welfarism. Having learned its lesson in Karnataka, the party was not averse to doling out freebies. Gauging the traction Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s ‘laadli behna’ scheme received in MP, the party announced its version of the dole for women in Chhattisgarh as well.

For the Congress, the ideological framework in these elections was articulated by Rahul Gandhi, who promised caste census and proportional representation in government jobs and educational narrative not associated with the Congress.

It’s too early to say whether the caste pitch cost the Congress a section of the upper caste vote. Or did the ‘sanatan dharma’ controversy triggered by its Dravidian ally, the DMK, add to its woes? What’s good for the goose is not necessarily good for the gander.

In all three states, the BJP did not name a CM candidate, and, in a new template, asked its sitting Lok Sabha MPs to contest in tough seats. The votes were sought in Modi’s name, but wherever required, the party was not averse to amending the script.

In MP, Chouhan’s candidature was not announced in the first three lists, but Modi in the last lap issued a written endorsement in the CM’s support. In Rajasthan, many of Vasundhara Raje’s supporters were accommodated in the last two lists, though she was not named the CM candidate. Despite having taken a position on ‘revari culture’, the BJP tried to match Ashok Gehlot’s welfare schemes.

The elections show that irrespective of the burden on the exchequer, competing welfarism and political populism are here to stay.

For the Congress, the only silver lining has been the Telangana victory. It now rules in two southern states and is in power with the DMK in Tamil Nadu. In the north, it has been limited to Himachal Pradesh.

The outcome of this round of Assembly polls will now weigh on the party’s efforts to negotiate its position within the I.N.D.I.A alliance. Will Nitish Kumar and Mamata Banerjee be on the same page on the issue of nationwide caste census?

In UP, Akhilesh Yadav has made no bones about his offer for a tie-up in MP. The Aam Aadmi Party would strike a hard bargain in Punjab and Delhi. A comeback in the next round of Assembly polls in Haryana and Maharashtra becomes tougher.

(This was first published on Dec 4, 2023)

The Modi formula for 2024: Hindutva, welfare & your wallet

A panel discussion on Dec 4, 2023 in Money Control.

What do state assembly results tell us about welfare policies, brand Modi and Rahul, road to 2024 and for the average Indian? Watch this exclusive discussion wth Moneycontrol’s Shweta Punj and on the panel we have solid guest line-up to give you all the insights. Panelists: Nalin Mehta, Managing Editor, Moneycontrol Sanjay Kumar, Political Analyst and Psephologist Sunil Alagh, Independent Business Consultant Prof Rajeev Gowda, Former MP, Rajya Sabha, INC Ashwani Mahajan, National Co-convenor, Swadeshi Jagran Manch.

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Courtesy: English Mathrubhumi, Deccan Herald and Money Control.