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Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life , a major research institute in Washington, DC, is predicting that the global Muslim population will grow by more than a third over the next two decades – with significant increases in Europe and the United States. However, it also expects that the overall rate of growth will begin to slow down. All these came under a report “Future of the Global Muslim Population ~ Projection 2010 – 2030” just published yesterday on 27th January 2011.
Researchers said it is a synthesis of data from around 1,500 different sources including national censuses, health surveys and other studies. It defines a Muslim as someone who self-identifies as a Muslim, not whether he or she is secular or religious or is considered a member of the faith by religious authorities.
The Pew Forum’s Associate Director of Research Alan Cooperman said one of the main findings is that the Muslim population worldwide is expected to grow at about twice the rate for non-Muslims. “So if, current trends continue, Muslims will make up 26.4 per cent of the world’s total projected population of 8.3 billion in 2030, up from 23.4 per cent of the estimated 2010 world population of 6.9 billion” he said.
The study reveals that Pakistan may surpass Indonesia as the world’s most populous Muslim nation while the Indian Muslims’ number is estimated to cross 23.6 crore (236 million) in 2030, as the community’s population worldwide is expected to grow about twice the rate of non-Muslims in the next two decades, says a study.
According to this report, India is projected to have a Muslim population of 23,6182,000 in 2030; which would be nearly 16 per cent of the then Indian population. And in 2010, India is estimated to have 177,286,000 Muslims, which is 14.6 per cent of the total Indian population.
With a projected population of 256,117,000 in 2030, Pakistan is expected to surpass Indonesia as the country with the single largest Muslim population.
In 2010, Pakistan has an estimated Muslim population of 178,097,000.
The report said, world’s Muslim population is expected to increase by about 35 per cent in the next 20 years, rising from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.2 billion by 2030.
The average annual growth rate of Muslims in the next two decades has been projected to be 1.5 per cent, compared with 0.7 per cent for the non-Muslims.
While the global Muslim population is expected to grow at a faster rate than the non-Muslim population, the Muslim population nevertheless is expected to grow at a slower pace in the next two decades than it did in the previous two decades.
From 1990 to 2010, the global Muslim population increased at an average annual rate of 2.2 per cent, compared with the projected rate of 1.5 per cent for the period from 2010 to 2030, the report said.
The Pew projections are based both on past demographic trends and on assumptions about how these trends will play out in future years.
If current trends continue, as many as 79 countries will have a million or more Muslim inhabitants in 2030, up from 72 countries today.
A majority of the world’s Muslims (about 60 per cent) will continue to live in the Asia-Pacific region, while about 20 per cent will live in the Middle East and North Africa, as is the case today.
The portion of the world’s Muslims living in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to rise; in 20 years, for example, more Muslims are likely to live in Nigeria than in Egypt.
Muslims will remain relatively small minorities in Europe and the Americas, but they are expected to constitute a growing share of the total population in these regions.
Pew said several factors account for the faster projected growth among Muslims than non-Muslims worldwide.
“Generally, Muslim populations tend to have higher fertility rates (more children per woman) than non-Muslim populations,” it said.
“In addition, a larger share of the Muslim population is in, or soon will enter, the prime reproductive years (ages 15-29). Also, improved health and economic conditions in Muslim-majority countries have led to greater-than-average declines in infant and child mortality rates, and life expectancy is rising even faster in Muslim-majority countries than in other less-developed countries,” the report said.
So far Asia Pacific region is concerned, nearly three-in-ten people living in the Asia-Pacific region in 2030 (27.3%) will be Muslim, up from about a quarter in 2010 (24.8%) and roughly a fifth in 1990 (21.6%).
Muslims make up only about 2% of the population in China, but because the country is so populous, its Muslim population is expected to be the 19th largest in the world in 2030.
In its another report (Mapping the Global Muslim Population, October 2009) of Pew Forum, it is said that Muslims living in the Asia-Pacific region constitute 62% of all Muslims worldwide.
The six Asian countries with the largest Muslim populations at present are: Indonesia (203 million), Pakistan (174 million), India (161 million), Bangladesh (145 million), Iran (74 million) and Turkey (74 million). Together these six countries are home to about 85% of Asia’s Muslim population and more than half (53%) of the global Muslim population.
About half of the Muslim population within Asia lives in South Asia (50%) and the remainder are somewhat equally divided between Southeast-East Asia (26%) and Central-Western Asia (24%). Very few Muslims, however, live in the Pacific (<1%).
From the above study and in comparison to various aspects Hindus of India may feel safe as a little increase of 2% will come up in Muslim population. But the Muslim strategy to capture India is different. Muslims in India have the scope to hide their population as a conspiracy against Hindus. About 20 million of Bangaldeshi Muslim infiltrators stay in India illegally without any reflection in the Indian National Census. A huge no of Muslim babies are not recorded in time as they like normal delivery at home without Institutional care. More over Govt. of India is not tracking the Muslim population in the Census of 2011 as they discard the method of any analysis on religious basis.
Muslims in India capture their zone of power in pocket basis. Though there are only two State of Lakshadweep (95.47%) and Jammu and Kashmir (66.97%) as a Muslim majority state so far in India, they will capture at least another three states in the next phase as Assam, West Bengal and Kerala.
But this gross analysis may dilute the threat of high Muslim concentrated areas in India where the Muslim law or the sharia is the last word and the persecution upon the non Muslims is high. There are only 22 districts predominated (over 75%) and dominated (50% – 75%) by Muslims out of 593 Indian districts. But there is another story. Some 48 districts have the substantial Muslim influence upon the Hindus as they constitute a population like 25% -50%. There are 350 Development Blocks in India where Muslims are majority and over 150000 rural and 10000 urban and metro habitations are in India to establish a Muslim might to explore the Pan Islamic strength in India.
Any assumption or presumption cannot describe the reality of Islamic growth in India, as it does not follow any control or rules beyond Islamic Theory of aggression.
Always it should be kept in mind the Islamic planning to capture India is being operated pseudo slowly but ultra steadily. They have the potency to be third in World Islamic Population of 160,945,000, just after Indonesia – 202,867,000 and Pakistan – 174,082,000 (stat. en 2009). Indian Muslims are the vital 10.3% of World Islamic Population and the largest Muslim Minority (13.4%) in any country. Take it otherwise. The 50 million (5 crore) Muslim population of India in 1947 is now reached 175 million (17.5 crore) in 2011 and will cross the limit of 235 million (23.5 crore) in 2030 with the blessings of Allah. Dangerous !! Moreover, the Indian Muslims are socially, politically and economically more powerful than anybody in India, as they control every Political Parties by their unique voting power embedded with their increasing numeric strength.